Recovery Forecast

With the ever changing 2020 capacity position through the unprecedented travel restrictions imposed globally, the social distancing advice across most countries of the world and the economic downturn being seen as a result of this, ASM Recovery Forecast looks at many parameters and trends to establish the anticipated 2020 outturn position.

This however is not necessarily the base case for the return to growth. The 2021 position looks at 2019’s performance for the full years and using the Airport Health Check of segments ranked by RASK, evaluate which segments might not operate in 2020, which will operate but with a different profile, maybe smaller capacity, less frequency etc.

This “New” base position is then projected forward on a carrier by carrier basis looking at the historical performance of the airline over the previous 5 years at the airport.

Using this as a projection for the future, each carrier by destination by be adjusted to reflect the current unique qualities of that specific carrier or that specific destination.

Output metrics are the total passengers’ volumes reported annually, annual capacity and the associated annual movements. These in turn will drive metrics of average load factors and average seats per movement across the airports network.

IN addition to these metrics, ASM will apply their Standard Busy Rate methodology to the passenger, capacity and movement metrics to establish the Peak Hour demands for terminal capacity and runway movements.

Why Recovery Forecast

  • ASM’s Recovery Forecast is an independent view on the short-term recovery based on multiple sources of data and information.
  • It is an evolving forecast that takes account of the many changes and developments in the market place that could have an impact the immediate and short-term outputs.
  • Frequent reviews allow management decisions to be made and refined as the markets seek to return to previous levels.
  • Associated Peak Hour analysis helps operations understand the peak demands and infrastructure requirements.

Contact Aidan Mooney, Vice President, on +44 (0)161 234 2740 for more information or email data@asm-global.com.