Traffic forecasts are the key to route development, providing evidence of a route’s potential success in terms of passenger numbers and yield.
The ‘ASM Forecast’ focuses on passenger numbers, connection flows, seasonality and yield to predict how potential new routes will perform. Our Forecasts have convinced airlines to start hundreds of new routes around the world.
The Forecast initially establishes the source airport’s catchment area (taking into consideration traffic leakage to competitors). The market is then analysed across four traffic segments:
- Local Traffic: Existing traffic between an airport and the target market
- Beyond Traffic: Indirect traffic from an airport to destinations beyond the target market that could be served by the proposed new service
- Behind Traffic: Indirect traffic that could connect via the source airport to the target market served by the proposed new service
- Bridge Traffic: Indirect traffic connecting behind the source airport and beyond the target destination (making two stops)
The following methodologies are used to calculate the market penetration that could be achieved:
- Quality of Service Index (QSI)
- Market Share: Capacity Share
- Frequency Share
Unlike our competitors we don’t just rely on algorithms and assumptions to define a market size or its potential; our consultants bring their extensive experience and creative thinking to the process to give you the best chance of securing a new route.
The Forecast comes in a report which details the methodology employed and the assumptions made when defining the catchment area. It contains analysis and commentary on each traffic segment and a summary output with passenger load factors and yields.
A one-off ASM Forecast can be purchased to support your route development activities or you could upgrade to a ‘Forecast Plus’ which includes a presentation for the target airline. More in-depth business cases can also be commissioned to evaluate the wider market dynamics.